I’m not a gambler, but it does feel like I’m always calculating the odds. Is it going to rain this week? Will the Adelaide Crows win? What’s the chance of a quiet evening without the phone ringing? We all peer into the future, Christians perhaps more than most. Which way is society going? To hell in a handbasket, or coming home to God?
Well, here’s some good news. A report issued last month by McCrindle1 showed that while nominal Christianity has dropped significantly over the last few censuses, some remarkable things have been happening regarding practicing Christianity:
- The percentage of Australians attending church at least monthly has steadily risen from 15% (in 2011) to 21% (in 2021).
- The percentage of Australians who are warm towards Christianity has risen from 58% in 2011 to 65% this year.
- No less than 784,000 Australians who ticked ‘No Religion’ in the 2016 census went on to tick ‘Christian’ in the 2021 census. Think about that!
- The percentage of Australians who are open to changing their religious views has risen from 8% in 2011 to 19% this year. (This looks like a shift from ‘these things are set in cultural stone’ back towards a genuine contest of ideas.)
McCrindle notes that across the 2010s it was older Australians driving the growth in Christianity. Other studies2 are now showing a surge this decade by younger people. What a turning of the tide! Let me make 3 comments:
- Praise the Lord! He is so good, why should we be surprised that more and more people turn to him?
- Much gospel work is a matter of sowing and reaping. I’d like to pat on the back all the sacred agents who represented Jesus well when the wind was against them, when following Jesus was uncool. To all the church leaders who’ve worked so hard at child safety and other standards, and to a million anonymous Christians who’ve been quietly washing feet, serving the marginalised, raising kids to know Jesus or praying for Grandkids. Others will reap what you’ve sowed, but you won’t go unrewarded.
- And when it comes to the Chances – what all this means for your local church or small group or ministry: For all this good news, the biggest factor determining growth is not societal trends, but the extent to which you invite, welcome and include. The likelihood of someone accepting an invitation to church may have risen from 30% to 40%, but 40% of zero is the same as 30% of zero.
Invite, invite! Make hay while the sun shines. And not just your ‘interested’ friends but everyone the Lord loves.
1 ‘An Undercurrent of Faith’ – McCrindle, 2025 – full report
2 See NCLS “Young People Most Frequent Attenders at Religious Services” here and the surge in Gen Z attendance in the UK
*Andrew Turner is Director of Crossover for Australian Baptist Ministries.
Photo by Riho Kroll on Unsplash
